Telecom:
Back From The Dead
JUNE
25, 2007 COVER STORY By Spencer E. Ante
All
those YouTube videos and MySpace pages zipping back and forth on the Net
have revived the telecom industry—and charged up the economy.
Peals of laughter
rippled through the ether in April when hundreds of thousands of people
clicked on YouTube.com (GOOG ) to watch comedian Will Ferrell's short video,
The Landlord. It's pretty hilarious, after all, to see a tiny 2-year-old
girl in a party dress playing the part of an irate landlord, squeaking,
"I am tired of this crap...I want my money!" at Ferrell, her distraught,
bushy-haired tenant.
What chuckling
viewers couldn't see was the sprawling framework that companies have cobbled
together to zap millions of clips like this one around the Internet every
day. After a student, say, at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J.,
clicked on The Landlord, one of hundreds of thousands of computer servers
in Google's (GOOG ) numerous California data centers pushed the video through
Web networking gear from Cisco Systems (CSCO ) and Juniper Networks (JNPR
). Last year, Google, YouTube's parent company, spent $1.9 billion, or
18% of its sales, on technology systems and other capital expenditures
to serve videos speedily and process search-engine queries.
From Google's
facility, the video shot across the U.S. on Level 3 Communications Inc.'s
fiber-optic network, which encompasses 47,000 miles of cable. Reaching
New Jersey, the clip was then handed off to a new fiber loop run by Verizon
Communications Inc. (VZ ) Milliseconds later, Verizon served up the video
to an apartment in New Brunswick through a broadband connection wired directly
into the building.
In those taken-for-granted
wires, cables, and computers lies a remarkable tale of resurrection. Seven
years ago the communications business, made up of companies providing everything
from phones to computer networks to routers and switches, was laid low
by the worst collapse to hit a U.S. industry since the Great Depression.
With breathtaking speed and little advance warning, high-flying companies
like Global Crossing Ltd. (GLBC ) and WorldCom Inc., which had loaded up
on debt to build out fiber-optic networks and buy up companies in anticipation
of a never-ending e-commerce boom, collapsed into bankruptcy. Giants such
as AT&T were ripped apart as they scrambled to recover from free-falling
sales and profits. Hundreds of thousands of workers lost their jobs. Prices
of some inflated stocks--boasting price-to-earnings ratios that topped
400 in the most extreme cases--tumbled 95% or more.
Investors saw
some $2 trillion of market value vanish in a little more than two years--twice
the damage caused by the parallel bursting of the Internet bubble. Amid
the wreckage, some predicted it could take a decade or more before the
industry would climb back and fill all those empty pipes that starry-eyed
executives had buried beneath the earth and oceans.
Over the past
year, however, the telecom industry has roared back to life. Credit a steady
rise in appetite for broadband Internet connections, which enable easy
consumption of watch-my-cat video clips, iPod music files, and such Web-inspired
services as free Internet phoning. Indeed, this year broadband adoption
among U.S. adults is expected to cross the important threshold of 50%.
Capital spending is on the rise as companies invest to build high-speed
networks. Private equity players are placing enormous bets on the industry,
such as the $8.2 billion that Silver Lake Partners and the Texas Pacific
Group agreed to pay for networking gearmaker Avaya on June 5. And the glut
in broadband communications capacity is all but gone.
About half of
the Internet's transmission capacity was going unused in 2002. Today that
pipeline has almost doubled in size, and yet the unused portion is down
to about 30%. As a result, the price that companies pay for bandwidth in
some parts of the U.S. is on the rise after six years of declines. "All
of us are planning expansions of our backbones in order to support growth
in Internet applications and video," says Dan Yost, executive vice-president
for product at Denver-based communications provider Qwest Communications
International Inc. (Q )
Perhaps the
best indicator of the telecom revival is this startling data point: Profits
for the industry this year are expected to reach an all-time high of $72
billion, topping for the first time the high-water mark of $65 billion
in 1998.
You don't have
to tell investors that telecom is back. It has been one of the hottest
sectors in the stock market over the past 18 months. In 2006 big phone
company and other stocks represented in the Telecom HOLDRS (TTH ) exchange-traded
fund rose 34%, after a nearly 10% decline in 2005. And the fund is up 14.8%
so far in 2007, compared with a 7.7% gain for the Dow Jones industrial
average.
But telecom's
revival has implications way beyond Wall Street. A dollar spent on telecom
infrastructure produces an outsize impact on the U.S. economy as a whole.
Indeed, a growing body of research has found that telecom investment plays
a vital role in stimulating economic growth and productivity--more so than
money spent on roads, electricity, or even education. Communication assets
generate massive benefits by slashing the cost of doing business across
the economy. A high-speed data network suddenly makes it easier and cheaper
for all kinds of workers to place orders, service customers, and drum up
new business.
A 2001 paper
in the American Economic Review, written by Lars-Hendrik Röller of
Berlin's Social Science Research Center and Leonard Waverman of the London
Business School, concluded that the spread of land-based telecommunications
networks in 21 developed nations accounted for one-third of the increase
in economic output between 1970 and 1990. Other studies suggest fiber-optic
and wireless networks provide their own special jolt to the economies of
rich and poor nations alike. "Out of the ashes of the tech crisis we got
a world-class, spanking-new communications network," says Mark Zandi, chief
economist for Moody Corp.'s (MCO ) Economy.com Inc. "That has been key
to outsized productivity gains ever since."
The $900 billion
industry looks far different than it did in 2000. The balance of power
has shifted toward Web upstarts such as YouTube and MySpace that barely
registered seven years ago. The Bell phone companies, meanwhile, have consolidated
and are furiously developing services they hope will let them capitalize
on the billions they're investing to build speedy new networks.
It's not clear,
though, how much of the value flowing from those networks will be captured
by the Bell companies themselves. The big phone companies don't have a
history of developing game-changing technologies in a competitive arena.
"They've got a high hill to climb," says William E. Kennard, a former Federal
Communications Commission chairman who is now managing director of Carlyle
Group, a large private equity firm that has purchased some telecom assets.
Meanwhile, Web companies such as Google are making a push to introduce
more competition into the wireless industry and loosen the Bells' control
over the Internet's distribution.
The long-awaited
arrival this month of Apple Inc.'s (AAPL ) iPhone, which surfs the Web,
takes pictures, plays music--and oh, yeah makes phone calls--may herald
a new round of disruption for the big telcos. By allowing software developers
to write applications for a better mobile Web device, Apple is attempting
to shatter the so-called walled-garden model of wireless companies in which
they control the wireless Internet gateway and the content that is featured
on the handset screen. If the iPhone's Web browser performs as hyped, customers
could start demanding a full range of Internet service on their phones
and new freedom in their service plans. That, in turn, could create ever
more demand for servers and routers, video services, and upgraded wireless
networks.
Within the broad
industry comeback are some remarkable turnarounds. Few companies got whipsawed
harder by the bust than Level 3 Communications. Founder and Chief Executive
James Q. Crowe started Level 3 in 1998 with a dream of building the world's
largest, most advanced fiber-optic network--and with $3 billion raised
from investors that included Walter Scott Jr., an Omaha construction magnate
and friend of Warren Buffett. Before long, the company was digging up earth
in 20 time zones with 250 crews installing fiber at a blistering pace of
19 miles a day. In March, 2000, Level 3's stock peaked at $130 a share.
But with money flowing like water, by the end of the year at least 50 other
companies jumped in to offer Internet backbone services. When it became
apparent that Crowe's network was attracting more competitors than customers,
the stock tumbled off a cliff, nearly killing the company. By October,
2001, it had bottomed out at $1.98 a share, sticking investors with tens
of billions in losses.
Today, Level
3 is alive and growing again. Over the past three years a strong bond market
enabled the company to refinance its massive debt at lower rates and pull
off 10 acquisitions worth more than $4 billion. Level 3 says more than
half of its network traffic today is from Web video, vs. no such traffic
in 2000. High debt levels are keeping its business in the red; analysts
don't expect Level 3 to generate positive cash flow until the end of this
year. But over the past nine months, Level 3's stock has jumped 60%, to
about 5 1/2, as it reaps a kind of survivor's premium. "For a long time
they were on death watch, but now they are the last guy standing in the
U.S. wholesale [bandwidth] business," says Stephan Beckert, an analyst
with Washington-based TeleGeography Research.
Now even some
initial public offerings are drawing interest on Wall Street. Shares in
Dallas-based wireless service provider MetroPCS Communications Inc. (PCS
) have jumped nearly 50% since the company went public on Apr. 22 at $23
a share. The stock price of communications gearmaker Riverbed Technology
Inc. (RVBD ) has more than quadrupled, to 40, since a September, 2006,
IPO. "There's a huge amount of startup innovation" in the communications
industry, says Morgan Jones, a partner with Battery Ventures, a venture-capital
firm in Waltham, Mass., that invested in MetroPCS.
Of course, that's
how it felt back in 2000--in spades. Then, it seemed as if demand for optical
routers, "pump lasers," and other whiz-bang broadband technologies would
grow forever. But when dot-coms started flopping in the spring of 2000,
the absurdity of projections calling for Internet traffic to double every
three months was revealed. The capital spigot, which had been gushing with
cash for upstart phone companies and established carriers alike, shut off.
With too many bandwidth providers chasing falling demand, wholesale Internet
connection prices began falling by 50% a year.
The first big
dominos fell in 2001, when broadband providers Winstar Communications and
360Networks filed for bankruptcy. Over the next three years 655 telecom
companies, with a combined $749 billion in assets, filed for bankruptcy,
according to BankruptcyData.com. On July 21, 2001, after an accounting
scandal revealed billions of dollars of overstated profits, WorldCom Inc.,
the giant that embodied the boom era's promise, filed the largest bankruptcy
claim ever.
The scope of
the wipeout was breathtaking, conjuring comparisons with the savings-and-loan
crisis of the 1980s. But this time it was private investors who ate the
losses, not the government. And the speed of creative destruction had one
advantage: By early 2004, recovery was already under way. In a key deal
in February of that year, Cingular Wireless agreed to buy AT&T Wireless
Services for about $41 billion. Soon the consolidation shifted into overdrive.
In December, Sprint announced a deal to buy Nextel Communications for $35
billion; a month later, SBC Communications said it would buy AT&T for
$16 billion; a month after that, Verizon struck a deal to acquire MCI,
the former WorldCom, for $8.4 billion.
But while the
phone and cable companies tightened their grips on the transmission pipes,
an army of upstarts went to work filling them. It's no accident that the
explosion of online video and the rebirth of telecom happened around the
same time. A typical video consumes 1,000 times as much bandwidth as a
sound file. (Likewise, high-definition video, which consumes 7 to 10 times
as much bandwidth as normal video, could trigger the next surge in network
growth.)
Online video
barely existed in 2000. Today, fully one-third of all Internet traffic
comes from Web videos, The Landlord included. Thanks to bandwidth-hungry
services such as YouTube, global Internet traffic from 2003 to 2006 grew
at a compounded annual rate of 75% a year, according to TeleGeography.
"When you compound those numbers, I don't care how much inventory you have,
it's going to disappear off the shelf," says Level 3 CEO Crowe.
To understand
the velocity at which video is taking over the Web, consider the experience
of VideoEgg Inc. While not nearly as well known as YouTube, VideoEgg in
less than two years has grown to become the largest video service for social-networking
Web sites. Instead of building their own Web video services, big online
communities such as Bebo and hi5 use VideoEgg technology to let members
broadcast videos on their sites.
Today, VideoEgg
serves up about 15 million videos a day across 70 Web sites. To deliver
them, the company works with giants such as AT&T and Verizon as well
as Web content-delivery service Akamai Technologies. (AKAM ) By yearend,
VideoEgg CEO and co-founder Matt Sanchez believes the company could more
than triple its current traffic.
Mainstream organizations
also have knit broadband networks into the fabric of their daily operations.
Take something as simple as mail delivery. Since 2005 the U.S. Postal Service
has been using wireless scanners so mail handlers can keep tabs on the
location of every one of the 200 billion pieces of mail it delivers in
a year. And it is now testing a wireless system that will keep track of
thousands of mail trailers parked in its 22 bulk mail centers. Since 2001
the Postal Service has boosted its network capacity tenfold to support
these systems. As a result, the service has become a major buyer of telecom
infrastructure, spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year on communications
services provided by Verizon and AT&T.
Indeed, while
companies remain tightfisted in their spending on computers and other information
technology, many of them believe new networks provide a big bang for their
bucks. Global spending on communications equipment for corporations is
forecast to grow 20% over the next three years, according to Infonetics
Research of Campbell, Calif. Consider the experience of clothing maker
Liz Claiborne Inc. (LIZ ): In late 2005 employees were becoming increasingly
frustrated when it was taking up to half an hour just to open up a 40-megabyte
spreadsheet. After the company installed new gear from Riverbed Technology
that compresses the files and stores the most popular data closer to the
users, documents popped open in a few minutes. "People were like, Wow,
I can't believe how fast this is,'" says Rakesh Patel, Liz Claiborne's
technical architect.
If the old telecom
world was dominated by bloated regional monopolies, the new world is a
competitive mosh pit stocked with sinewy players. That's reflected in how
much more productive the industry has become. While telecom revenues are
now 19% higher than they were in 2000, that money supports just 1.1 million
workers, down nearly 30% from boom-era levels. "It has gotten unrelentingly
competitive in every area: broadband, land line, and wireless," says AT&T's
new CEO, Randall Stephenson.
For the big
carriers such as at&t, Verizon, and Qwest, the main challenge is to
slow defections of traditional land-line customers while producing faster
revenue growth in new markets such as wireless, Internet service, pay TV,
and advertising. The carriers must overcome their reputation for being
"dumb pipes" and prove they can fill their networks with innovative bundles
of products and services that strike a chord with customers--all while
battling cable operators, which are poaching millions of phone customers,
and fending off or making peace with aggressive new entrants such as Google
and Apple. (AAPL )
There is reason
to believe the phone companies are reinventing themselves. Verizon, for
example, will soon offer services that allow consumers to personalize and
share photos, videos, and other media among their cell phones, PCs, and
TVs. Five years ago, Verizon employed about 100 software developers who
were mostly focused on installing products developed outside the company.
Today, Chief Technology Officer Shaygan Kheradpir oversees more than 1,000
developers. In July the company will launch an interactive media guide
for Verizon's FiOSTV service; by clicking on it, couch potatoes can access
all of the photos, music, and videos they have stored on a PC. Further
down the road, Verizon says it will steal a page from YouTube and allow
TV customers to create their own personalized video channels. "We don't
have to own every service," says Verizon CEO Ivan G. Seidenberg. "We just
have to package a lot of them and help the customer find the things they
like."
It doesn't help
that American phone companies can no longer rely on the wireless business
for growth as much as they have in the past. Mobile telephony is a maturing
market. For the first time, this year the growth rate for new wireless
subscribers in the U.S. is expected to decline. To continue generating
double-digit revenue growth, wireless carriers must steal customers from
one another or persuade more consumers to buy next-generation phones and
purchase so-called 3G services such as games, music, and videos. Every
major wireless service provider is upgrading its networks to provide faster
speeds for uploading and downloading wireless content. But only 15% of
the wireless handsets in the U.S. are capable of handling 3G services.
That raises
a troubling question: Could another unpleasant surprise await investors
who have bought into this shiny image of telecom transformation? Maybe.
Some of the projections for new mobile-phone businesses, especially video
downloads, seem over-the-top in a late-'90s kind of way. But there's nowhere
near the sense of limitless expectations that drove telecom investors off
the cliff last time. Despite strong performances of late, stocks such as
AT&T, Verizon, and Cisco Systems are trading today at 15 to 20 times
2007 earnings. Cisco's price-earnings ratio in 2000 hit 145.
Perhaps Cisco,
the No. 1 seller of network gear, is emblematic. In what seemed at the
time like a milestone in the Net's ascendency, Cisco briefly passed Microsoft
Corp. in March, 2000, to become the most valuable company on the planet.
Soon after, Cisco had to write down $2 billion of unsellable routers and
other equipment. By July, 2002, its stock price had tumbled from 77 to
12. Cisco cut costs, laid off workers for the first time, and weathered
the storm. Today, it is flowering again, selling equipment to cable and
phone companies that are expanding their services, and branching out into
new business and consumer markets. In the most recent quarter, the company
reported profits of $1.9 billion, up 34%, on strong sales of $8.9 billion.
On June 12, the stock was trading around 26.
CEO John Chambers
tells a post-bust story that sums up how quickly things have turned around.
Back in 2004, he recalls, critics laughed when Cisco rolled out an audacious
new router, the CRS-1, capable of transmitting the entire contents of the
Library of Congress in a few seconds. Analysts predicted only a handful
would sell. This year, thanks to the video bandwidth hogs, sales of the
CRS-1 are expected to hit $1 billion, more than double the figure for 2006.
Says Chambers, who has never lacked for confidence throughout the boom,
bust, and boom again: "The market is going exactly where we thought."
Yes,
We Can All Be Insured
By Jane Bryant Quinn
Newsweek
July 30, 2007 issue - Prepare
to be terrorized, shocked, scared out of your wits. No, not by jihadists
or Dementors (you do read "Harry Potter," right?), but by the evil threat
of ... universal health insurance! The more the presidential candidates
talk it up, the wilder the warnings against it. Cover everyone? Wreck America?
Do you know what care would cost?
But the public knows the
American health-care system is breaking up, no matter how much its backers
cheer. For starters, there's the 46 million uninsured (projected to rise
to 56 million in five years). There's the shock of the underinsured when
they learn that their policies exclude a costly procedure they need—forcing
them to run up an unpayable bill, beg for charity care or go without. And
think of the millions who plan their lives around health insurance—where
to work, whether to start a business, when to retire, even whom to marry
(there are "benefits" marriages, just as there are "green card" marriages).
It shocks the conscience that those who profit from this mess tell us to
suck it up.
I do agree that we can't
afford to cover everyone under the crazy health-care system we have now.
We can't even afford all the people we're covering already, which is why
we keep booting them out. But we have an excellent template for universal
care right under our noses: good old American Medicare. When you think
of reform, think "Medicare for all."
Medicare is what's known
as a single-payer system. In the U.S. version, the government pays for
health care delivered in the private sector. There's one set of comprehensive
benefits, with premiums, co-pays and streamlined paperwork. You can buy
private coverage for the extra costs.
Health insurers hate this
model, which would end their gravy train. So they're trying to tar single-payer
as a kind of medical Voldemort, ready to destroy. Here are some of their
canards, and my replies:
Universal coverage costs
too much. No—what costs too much is the system we have now. In 2005, the
United States spent 15.3 percent of gross domestic product on health care
for only some of us. France spent 10.7 percent and covered everyone. The
French comparison is good because its system works very much like Medicare-for-all.
The other European countries, all with universal coverage, spent less than
France.
Why are U.S. costs off the
charts? Partly because we don't bargain with providers for a universal
price. Partly because of the money that health insurers spend on marketing
and screening people in or out. Medicare's overhead is just 1.5 percent,
compared with 13 to 16 percent in the private sector. John Sheils of the
Lewin Group, a health-care consultant, says that the health insurers' overhead
came to $120 billion last year, of which $40 billion was profit. By comparison,
it would cost $54 billion to cover all the uninsured.
Eeeek, your taxes would go
up! Maybe not, if Sheils is right. Both the Congressional Budget Office
and the General Accounting Office have testified that the United States
could insure everyone for the money we're spending now. But even if taxes
did rise, you might still come out ahead. That's because your Medicare
plan would probably cost less than the medical bills and premiums you're
paying now.
We get world-class care;
don't tamper with it. On average, we don't. International surveys put France
in first place. On almost all measures of health care and mortality, we
lag behind Canada and Europe. Many individuals do indeed get superior care,
but so do people in single-payer countries, and at lower cost.
They have long waiting times.
No advanced country has waiting periods for emergency surgery or procedures
that are urgently needed. The United States has shorter waits than Canada
and England for elective surgery. Still, queues are developing here, at
the doctor's door. In a study of five developed countries, the Commonwealth
Fund looked at how many sick adults had to wait six days or more for an
appointment. By this measure, only Canada's record was worse than ours.
But waits depend on how well a system is funded, not with the fact that
it's single-payer. Many countries that cover everyone, including France,
Belgium, Germany and Japan, report no issue with waits at all.
There's no problem; people
get care even if they're uninsured. They don't. They get emergency treatment
but little else. As a group, the uninsured are sicker, suffer more from
chronic disease and rarely get rehabilitation after an injury or surgery.
They also die sooner—knowing that, with insurance, they might have lived.
Right now, Congress is trying
to bring 3.3 million uninsured children into the State Children's Health
Insurance Program. President George W. Bush says he'll veto the expansion
as "the wrong path for our nation." He objects to "government-run health
care" (like Medicare?) and says that SCHIP "deprives Americans of ... choice"
(like the choice to go uninsured?). Buzzwords like "government run" are
supposed to summon up monsters like "socialized medicine" that apparently
still lurk under our beds. If these terror tactics work, prepare for another
46 million uninsured.
Reporter Associate: Temma
Ehrenfeld
News
from the Communications Workers of America
The
Union for the Information Age
For
release Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2007, 11 a.m. EST
Following
is the statement by President Larry Cohen of the Communications Workers
of America at the news conference announcing the
“Better Health Care Together” Campaign. The
diverse group of business, labor and non-profit leaders outlined four principles
to reform the U.S. health care system by 2012.
All
of us share a commitment to universal health care for all Americans within
five years.
By
any measure ? whether we’re considering the impact on our global competitiveness,
the devastating drain on our economy, or the basic immorality of allowing
47 million people to remain without health care coverage ? our current
system is insufficient.
We
often hear that the United States has the best quality medical care in
the world. And, for the dollars we spend that should be true.
But it’s not.
The
World Health Organization ranks the United States at 37th among the nations
of the world in delivering quality care. And, that's despite our
spending double the amount per capita that Japan, Canada, and European
nations spend on health care. When it comes to infant mortality,
we're 44th in the world, far behind all other advanced economies.
Our
current system is the most expensive in the world and amounts to 16 percent
of our gross national product.
Most
labor disputes today ? such as the recent 3-month Goodyear strike ? are
caused by workers trying to protect their families' health security.
Such conflict affects our economy as well as the lives of those directly
involved.
Barbara,
a CWA Customer Service Representative in Stockton, California, wrote recently
that, “I’m worried that someday there will be no health care insurance
for us, and only the wealthy will be able to go to the doctor. We
need a plan for everyone.”
She’s
right.
Our
current system puts a huge strain on employers like AT&T that provide
quality benefits for employees – both current and retired – and their families.
It forces many U.S. businesses to compete not on the quality of their products,
services and performance, but instead on the cost of health care benefits.
Many U.S. companies must compete globally against competitors where there
is some form of national health care that reduces benefit costs and gives
those competitors an advantage.
Let’s
just imagine universal health care coverage for every person in America
? a system that expands health care coverage outside the traditional employment
relationship ? a system that assures working families that they won’t lose
their health coverage if they change or lose their jobs ? a system that
ensures that retirees have health security.
What
could our economy achieve without the financial drag of our damaged health
care system? How far could we progress in today’s global economy?
How many jobs might we create or keep in the United States?
Ken,
a CWA member in Vancouver, Washington, like many working people, sees the
link between universal, quality heath care coverage and the United States’
ability to maintain our place in the world’s economy, and keep quality
jobs in the U.S. He writes that we can’t “simply lower the cost of
labor by supporting off-shoring and importing cheap labor. We need
to move toward standardizing health care coverage.”
Today,
we are beginning to build support among elected officials and the public
to achieve universal health care by 2012. It’s long past time to
move health care ? a public good ? from the corporate balance sheet to
the public balance sheet.
CWA
has worked with many of our employers on health care issues for decades
and, with AT&T, pioneered ways to ensure quality care, manage costs
and provide health care security to hundreds of thousands of employees
and their families. But those efforts alone are not sufficient.
We
don’t all agree on the details. But we have found common ground.
The coalition has set 2012 as the date for achieving our goal of guaranteed
universal health care, and our common commitment can make a difference.
For
more information, contact Jeff Miller or Candice Johnson, CWA Communications,
202-434-1168, jmiller@cwa-union.org and cjohnson@cwa-union.org
Pension
Protection Act of 2006
January
31, 2007
TO:
All CWA District 7 Local Officers
FROM:
Reed Roberts, Administrative Assistant to the Vice President
SUBJECT:
H.R. 4, the Pension Protection Act of 2006 (PPA)
Attached
is the analysis of this prepared by Bob Patrician, Research Economist at
CWA Headquarters giving a brief explanation of the pension legislation
adopted in 2006.
We
understand that the Locals are getting a number of inquiries from their
members that the PPA will require some changes to our Pension Plan. These
concerns primarily are with those units that allow ‘lump sum’ distributions
in that the PPA will force a reduction in the amounts paid.
Lump
sums are calculated on the basis of an amount provided under the Plan.
Under the Qwest Plan for example, the lump sum distribution is equal to
ten years of annuity payments (the monthly pension amount x 12 x 10). The
calculation then takes into account the 30-year Treasury rate. Under this
preexisting formula, the higher the interest rate, the lower the lump sum
distribution. The rationale for this is that the higher the interest rate,
the higher the return on investments, so the lower the lump. When interest
rates are low, the return on investments is lower, the lump is bigger.
The
Pension Protection Act of 2006 was aimed at those employers whose Pension
Plans were under-funded and has little to no effect on our existing pension
plans in telecommunications. It does mean a lot for our members in the
airline industry who were impacted by the defaulting and bankruptcy of
some of those major employers. As Bob notes in his analysis:
“For
a plan which is in financial trouble such an immediate payout could have
negative consequences for the ongoing health of the plan. The legislation
would prevent plans which are severely under-funded from paying out lump
sum distributions.
The
proposal would also make some changes to the part of the law which governs
the calculation of lump sums. Under current law, “a plan’s lump sum
payment to a participant or beneficiary must be no less than the present
value of the annuity to which the participant or beneficiary would have
been entitled. For this calculation, the plan must use specified
interest and mortality assumptions.”
Under
the new legislation, the calculation of this minimum lump sum amount
must
use a “three-segment yield curve” of corporate bond rates to determine
the interest rate to be used. As a rule of thumb, corporate bond
rates have generally run about one percentage point higher than the 30-year
Treasury bond rate.”
A second
question has to do with any change to current Plan calculations. Again
using the Qwest Plan as an example, the 30-year Treasury rate is the basis
for these calculations. Mr. Patrician’s memo addresses this as well:
“…the
most critical fact about the calculation of lump sum distributions is that
the new law sets the methodology for calculating the minimum amount.
It is perfectly acceptable for a pension plan to pay a larger amount, as
long as that amount does not exceed the limitation established in Section
303 of the proposal.”
The
law does not require that the contractual formulas negotiated with employers
such as Qwest be changed as a result of the new legislation nor have any
of our employers approached us about doing so, therefore our Plans continue
as negotiated.
Background Information
on this Pension Legislation.
FROM:
Bob Patrician Research Economist TO: CWA Executive
Board
Read
his Report to CWA
file Sol's goodbye kiss
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